Learning to trade the forex market can be a valuable lifetime financial skill. The road to financial freedom requires a toll be paid in the form of perseverance and dedication. The journey starts with a single step and that step should be in the direction of developing a strong foundation in forex market analysis. In this article we are going to go over some forex market evaluation strategies designed to manage profit and losses in your currency trading account.

For anyone starting out trading the forex market, managing your trading can be a daunting task. Everything else seems to take priority over proven evaluation techniques. Learning the currency pairs and the myriad of technical indicators can at first be all encompassing, but building a solid market evaluation approach will allow you to maintain the big picture necessary for successful forex trading.

It all begins with a trading plan. Your forex trading plan should be your hard and fast guide to trade execution. Your trading plan should reflect your trading philosophy and style. Your plan should also contain key forex market evaluation strategies. Below are some currency market evaluation rules that can be embedded into your forex trading plan.

1. Price Action

In the end it is all about the price. Take a look at the current price behavior. Determine if the market is oversold or overbought. Are there any signals indicating a reversal, continuation or retracement? Where are the areas of support and resistance?

2. Market Condition

Access the overall market conditions. Look at both long and short term views. Access if the market is range bound or trending. Look deep into the market using multiple time frames in your technical analysis to determine if the currency pairs are trending short term in a long term range bound market or vice versa.

Stay current with the news and geo-political events. Technical analysis is the direction and the news can be the catalyst. Get comfortable with the principals of that Italian mathematician named Fibonacci.

3. Price Target

Determine what your price target is for the respective ranges and time frames. Patiently time your trade executions. You will be rewarded. Use your price action evaluation and market conditions to determine your price target.

Ask yourself if it makes sense and look for reasons NOT to enter a trade. When you cannot find those reasons then it is onto trade execution to determine reward-risk ratios and stop losses!

4. Stop Loss

Determine the criteria for stopping the trade on both profit and loss side. Decide upon both technical and fundamental stops. No one is correct 100% of the time, in fact when we trade leveraged instruments like currencies we can be profitable with less than a 50-50 win-loss ratio when we have excellent money management skills.

If you trade without a stop-loss then your forex experience will be a short-term activity!

Anyone can enter a trade, but it is the truly skilled forex trader that knows when to exit the trade. On the profit side, as well as the loss side!

5. Risk Management

Determine how much capital you are going to risk in a given trade. This is critical. You have performed all your evaluation and your exact risk should be a known quantity.

You should also have a minimum reward to risk ratio established in order to limit your losing trades while giving the best odds for the trade to be profitable. This risk to reward ration should be determined by your trading style and time frames used.

Finally, talk the trade through with your trading group or out loud if you are alone. Trust me; you will not be the first forex trader to talk to yourself. Being able to talk through a trade will reinforced the positive aspects of the trade and confirms that your trade will be executed in accordance with your trading plan.

Then it is time to celebrate, because even if the trade does not go your way you had solid execution. You had a losing trade and not a bad trade. That is the difference between successful and non-successful traders. The law of averages will eventually reward you.

If forex is your path to financial freedom, then it should be your business as well. Developing a solid business (trading) plan and market evaluation approach will be your foundation for success in the forex market.

We have already looked at the difference between fundamental and technical analysis of currency trading in our “currency trading success” article, here we will concentrate more on the advantages of technical analysis for currency trading and how to build a successful system.

There are many different methods and tools utilized in technical analysis, but they all rely on the same principles - that price patterns and price trends exist in the market and that they can be identified and turned into profit opportunities.

Technical Analysis in currency trading is based on three core principles:

Markets Discount

The actual price is a reflection of everything known to the market that could possibly have an affect on price movement and includes supply and demand, political factors, and the market sentiment.

The pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, NOT the reasons behind the price movements.

Prices Move in Trends

Prices can move in three directions - they can move up, down or sideways.

Once a trend in any of these directions is in effect it usually, will persist and create a trend.

The market trend is simply defined as the direction of market prices, a concept that is essential to the success of technical analysis in currency trading.

Identifying trends in theory is simple; a price chart will usually indicate the prevailing trend as characterized by a series of waves with obvious peaks and troughs.

It is the direction of these peaks and troughs that constitutes the market trend, if they move up, the trend is bullish, if they move down the trend is bearish and of course if they move sideways then the market is in a period of consolidation.

History Tends to Repeat Itself

To a technical analyst in currency trading, the trader psychology that affects prices is extremely important, as human nature is repetitive and this shows up in repetitive price patterns.

This allows anyone using technical analysis in currency trading to predict where prices are likely to go next and traders can then act upon this information for profit.

The market price reflects everything

Technical analysis in currency trading is primarily concerned with price trends and everything that can possibly affect a currency is reflected in price action.

Technical Indicators

The logic of technical analysis for currency trading is universally accepted, and there are numerous ways to execute technical trading systems, with the huge amount of available indictors used either alone, or in combination.

We will look at the different indicators below and some that have proved highly effective in the technical analysis of currency trading. Any traders, who wish to profit from the currency markets, should consider these indicators.

Trend Indicators

A trend is a term used to describe the persistence of price movement in one direction over time. The easiest way to spot trends is via trend lines, drawn below price lows or above price highs.

While basic trend lines have gone out of fashion in recent years in favor of more complicated indicators, they are still one of the most effective ways to technically analyze currency movements.

Support/Resistance Indicators

Support and resistance describes the price levels where markets repeatedly rise or fall and then reverse. This phenomenon reflects basic supply and demand and when prices break above or below significant support or resistance, a big move can follow very quickly.

Again, the best method for spotting and acting on these breaks is the humble trend line.

We believe that trend lines should be the basis on which ANY technical analysis of currencies should be based on - and the indicators below are for confirmation:

Volatility Indicators

Volatility is a general term used to describe the magnitude, or size, of day-to-day price fluctuations independent of their direction. Generally, changes in volatility tend to lead changes in prices.

One great indicator to use is the Bollinger band.

Any trader should look at Bollinger Bands, as they represent one of the most effective indicators for the technical analysis of currency markets.

Not only is it good for predicting trend movements, but also it is useful for timing entry and exit levels, as well as when to increase or decrease position size.

Cycle Indicators

A cycle is a term to indicate repeating patterns of market movement, specific to recurrent events, such as elections, year-end monetary repatriation etc.

Cycle indicators determine the timing of a particular market patterns. A good example would be Elliott Wave theory. Cycle indicators however in our view are of little or no use, in the technical analysis of currencies.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over given time periods.

Momentum indicators determine the strength or weakness of a trend as it progresses over time. Momentum is generally highest at the start of a trend and lowest at market turning points.

Any divergence of directions in price and momentum is a warning of weakness; if price extremes occur with weak momentum, then an end of movement in the current direction could occur.

If however momentum is trending strongly and prices are flat, it signals a potential change in price direction. Examples of momentum indicators include Stochastics, MACD and RSI.

The most effective momentum indictor is the stochastic and using stochastic crossovers to time entry and exit levels, can be highly effective.

Sentiment Indicators

Many technical analysts in currency trading monitor surveys of investor sentiment such as net trader’s positions and bullish consensus.

These indicators attempt to gauge the general attitude of the investment community, to determine whether investors are bearish or bullish.

These indicators are only to be used when extremes of sentiment are reached, either bullish or bearish.

If used in this way, they are one of the most powerful warning signs of significant market turning points and can be used in technical analysis of currency markets to huge effect.

Putting it all Together

Traders make money from the technical analysis of currency markets in many different ways, however we believe that trend lines backed up by just a few additional indicators (to help time market entry exit and stop levels) can be very effective.

Here we are going to look at the importance of currency research and how to implement in a trading plan for big gains over the long term.

Currency trading research falls in to specific categories - currency research before you trade, research for traders executing a vendors signals and research for traders who want confirmation for their own trading.

Getting the right currency research will have a big influence on your trading success, so let’s look at each area in more detail.

Currency Trading Research - Before you start

All traders need to know the basics, you wouldn’t try to drive a car without lessons, and neither should you try to trade currencies without a bit of study.

There are plenty of good books on trading and here we are going to give you some books that you may like to consider.

Good books to read include any by Larry Williams, Jake Bernstein and Ken Roberts while not specific to currency trading their easy to read and digest and give you an idea of what trading is all about.

You also need to read some good books on trading psychology and there is no better place to start than Jack Shwagers Market Wizards and New Market Wizards that complies some stories of some of the great traders of all time including: Ed sekoyta, Richard Dennis and the famous turtletraders. These books are essential reading for any trader.

Other good books on psychology include ones by Alexander Elder and Dr Van Tharpe

And the classic reminiscences of a stock operator by Edwin Le feuvre

Good overall reference books to have are fundamental market analysis and technical both again by Jack Shwager.

Currency Trading Research - Following Mechanical Signals

Many traders like to follow currency research in the form of newsletters and currency trading systems from vendors and then act upon the signals they provide.

If you are doing this make sure you:

1. Have full confidence in the method they are using to generate the signals and know as much about the logic as you can.

2. You also should study trading history to see how successful trades have been and make sure you are happy with the risk reward.

3. Keep in mind if you are following signals or trades you need to follow them EXACTLY and this means having full confidence in the method used.

Currency Trading Research - To help you with Entry and Exit Levels

If you don’t want to follow someone else and you wish to make your own trades then there is plenty of currency trading research services on the net.

There are services that you can pay for, but much of it is available free and in many instances, this information is the best.

Many of the larger brokers and banks have great research and cover both technical and fundamental factors affecting currency movements.

Do a search, and you will be able to find good daily, weekly and monthly currency research reports.

A Word of Warning on Currency Trading Research!

The amount of currency trading research on the net is vast and many traders feel that the more research they have the better and try to use 5, 10 or even more different services to help them with their trading.

The result? - They end up with to much information, much of it conflicting and get confused and unsure what to do.

The best way to use currency trading research if you are trading for yourself is follow a few services only, that reflect your trading style and use them as a filter for your own trades.

Currency Research - Helping to Make your Trading Profitable

If you are simply following signals or trades of someone else, you need to spend time doing your homework, so you have full confidence to execute trades with discipline.

Research is needed regardless of whether the method is totally mechanical or reasons are given for the trades.

To get the most from this type of research you need to follow ALL the trades, not just a few! Otherwise, you may miss the best opportunities and your track record will not reflect that of the service, which you bought.

The real problem for trader’s who want currency research to just help them confirm their own trading material, is the sheer volume of research available.

You need to be SELECTIVE and just have a couple - too many will confuse you and give you conflicting information.

As stated there is no need to pay, many banks and brokers offer great research and it’s totally free and in many instances better than the paid for services.

Options in theory give you unlimited profit potential and limited risk. Sounds good? In theory it does, but keep in mind that 90% of options that are bought expire worthless, so that’s a 90% chance of losing your money - if you don’t know what you are doing.

Getting the Odds on Your Side

You can however increase your odds of success with currency options by knowing which options to buy and sell and by knowing how foreign exchange markets work.

Four Simple Tips to Increase Your Odds of Success

Let’s assume you want to buy an option and the price of the British Pound is at 1.60, you are expecting the British Pound to go to 1.90. What option do you buy?

1. Potential Rewards are not what they seem

The first points to consider when buying an option is how much time value you want and what strike price you wish to buy.

There are two points to consider

. Time to expiry . How far out of of the money the strike price is

2. Get time on your side

Keep in mind your option does not just need to go your way from when you bought it; it needs to trade in the money by expiry.

3. Buy realistic strike prices

If you want to make money in options trading, buy strikes that are in the money or close to the money, with plenty of time to expiry.

4. How to buy options in longer term trends

If you are trading currencies and trading the longer-term trend, position yourself into the trend in the following manner.

· Identify the long-term trend via trend lines.

· Wait for a dip in the market to position yourself in the trend.

· Watch for dips to nearby support and then look for confirmation with stochastic crossovers, or other momentum tools to enter the option.

· Another way of buying options in the long-term trend is to look for moves to the middle of a Bollinger band to time entry. This is a great tool in strongly trending markets.

· The above will work well in strongly trending markets and if you buy in the money options or realistic strike prices with plenty of time on your side, you will increase your odds of success dramatically.

The above is a simple strategy and one that can help you make big profits from currency trading buying options.

What about Strategies that are more Complicated? You can do a whole number of options strategies, but our view is why make it complicated?

Many traders think the more complicated the strategy the better the chances of success but this is not true in currency options.

There is no correlation between how complicated a strategy is and its chances of success.

When I look at the charts tonight I think of my favorite Led Zeppelin song, The Song Remains the Same. Cable will once again be testing the resistance around 1.7935.

If this sounds familiar it should, we have been tell you about this since last Thursday.

While we believe it will hold only time will tell for sure, we must be very vigilant in watching in the New York session, especially with the release of the consumer confidence report at 10:00 AM.

The fundamentals are all over the place, due to fears of the recent and dramatic increase in gasoline prices. What does this mean to us? We need to watch and take action dependant on the situation at the time of the news release.

On Monday 1.7800 held as support a little above where we were looking as we were watching 1.7750 again. We were still able to close both of our trades, the first for 60 pips and the second for 80 pips of profit.

The previously mentioned cluster of resistance around 1.7935 has several good supporting reasons behind it, with the main player being a 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the 1.8498 to 1.7048 move, and the previous highs of 1.7934 and 1.7933.

We will watch closely to see in the rise continues, and if it does we are looking towards the 1.8498 previous high. If this current resistance at 1.7935 holds and we see a reversal, we will look towards the support cluster at 1.7680

Tonight we are trading around 1.7864. We will be watching the resistance level around 1.7935 closely for another reversal. This should be a great area to be looking for a sell. Remember to play it safe, its better to have a safe entry and not get into your trade than to have an over aggressive entry and get sopped out of your trade for a loss.

To learn more about how we teach traders to successfully trade the forex market be sure to attain a top notch Forex Trading Education. Whether it be a forex trading course or forex seminar, you must prepare yourself for your trading career..

We find these support and resistance levels using a set of technical indicators and other variables that we have found to be most successful for us. We use several other indicators and a variety of technical analysis techniques to enter and exit all of our trades. Every trader will have a different combination of indicators that makes the most sense to them. Learn how to develop your own successful forex trading style with a forex trading course or forex seminar.