Saturday, December 30, 2006

Fear of Failing in Trading

This question was sent to me from one of our students: What if you can’t help it, but you are really afraid to fail as a trader. You have put so much into your desire to trade. You have a wall full of books. You have invested most of your money. You don’t dare fail now, but you fear you will. How do you deal with your fear of failing?

How you think and how you approach life affects how you approach trading. If you are extremely fearful, you are not going to be willing to take risks. The ultimate result of this is that you may be afraid to put on a trade. Your expectations, whether conscious or unconscious, have a powerful influence on your trading performance.

As traders we face many common fears. We are afraid of being wrong. We fear losing money. One of the greatest fears is that of missing a trade. Some of us are afraid we are leaving money on the table. All of these are different sides of the same box – fear of failure.

So how do we handle fear of failure? We have to recognize the basic assumptions that underlie the fear and counteract them.

Generally, rather than come face to face with our fears, we avoid dealing with them. We may even deny their existence. However, can be useful to simply identify our erroneous underlying assumptions and change them. When we change our assumptions, we really are changing ourselves.

We need to know what causes the fear of failure. Some of us feel that we must be thoroughly competent, adequate, and achieving. But the truth is that you do not have to be that way. Holding such a belief produces fear and anxiety. If you are a trader, fear and anxiety can produces hesitation and self-doubt.

Traders who believe they must be competent spend their time worrying about what they did wrong, what may go wrong, and how they will recover should they fail. They are, in effect, distracted by their own thoughts.

You cannot afford to allow fear of failure to interfere with your trading success. You don't have to be perfect. As any professional trader will tell you, you are going to make mistakes from time to time, and if you are totally immersed in avoiding them, you'll be so anxious and fearful that you will make even more mistakes. Tell yourself that it is not practical to believe that you must be thoroughly competent. You don’t have to be the greatest achiever. Realize that as a trader you cannot live up to a standard of perfection. If you strive to be perfect it may actually lead you to the very failure you are trying to avoid.

Joe Ross Trading Educators Inc

Joe Ross has been trading for more than 47 years, and is a well known Master Trader. He has survived all the up and downs of the markets because of his adaptable trading style, using a low-risk approach that produces consistent profits.

Joe is the creator of the Ross hook, and has set new standards for low-risk trading with his concept of "The Law of Charts™." Joe was a private trader for most of his life. In the mid 80's he shift his focus and decided to share his knowledge. After his recovery, he founded Trading Educators in 1988 to teach aspiring traders how to make profits using his trading approach. He has written 12 major books on trading. All of them have become classics and have been translated into many different languages.

Joe holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration from the University of California at Los Angeles. He did his Masters work in Computer Sciences at the George Washington University extension in Norfolk, VA. Joe still tutors, teaches, writes, and trades regularly. Joe is still an active and integral part of Trading Educators.

This question was sent to me from one of our students: What if you can’t help it, but you are really afraid to fail as a trader. You have put so much into your desire to trade. You have a wall full of books. You have invested most of your money. You don’t dare fail now, but you fear you will. How do you deal with your fear of failing?

How you think and how you approach life affects how you approach trading. If you are extremely fearful, you are not going to be willing to take risks. The ultimate result of this is that you may be afraid to put on a trade. Your expectations, whether conscious or unconscious, have a powerful influence on your trading performance.

As traders we face many common fears. We are afraid of being wrong. We fear losing money. One of the greatest fears is that of missing a trade. Some of us are afraid we are leaving money on the table. All of these are different sides of the same box – fear of failure.

So how do we handle fear of failure? We have to recognize the basic assumptions that underlie the fear and counteract them.

Generally, rather than come face to face with our fears, we avoid dealing with them. We may even deny their existence. However, can be useful to simply identify our erroneous underlying assumptions and change them. When we change our assumptions, we really are changing ourselves.

We need to know what causes the fear of failure. Some of us feel that we must be thoroughly competent, adequate, and achieving. But the truth is that you do not have to be that way. Holding such a belief produces fear and anxiety. If you are a trader, fear and anxiety can produces hesitation and self-doubt.

Traders who believe they must be competent spend their time worrying about what they did wrong, what may go wrong, and how they will recover should they fail. They are, in effect, distracted by their own thoughts.

You cannot afford to allow fear of failure to interfere with your trading success. You don't have to be perfect. As any professional trader will tell you, you are going to make mistakes from time to time, and if you are totally immersed in avoiding them, you'll be so anxious and fearful that you will make even more mistakes. Tell yourself that it is not practical to believe that you must be thoroughly competent. You don’t have to be the greatest achiever. Realize that as a trader you cannot live up to a standard of perfection. If you strive to be perfect it may actually lead you to the very failure you are trying to avoid.

Joe Ross Trading Educators Inc

Joe Ross has been trading for more than 47 years, and is a well known Master Trader. He has survived all the up and downs of the markets because of his adaptable trading style, using a low-risk approach that produces consistent profits.

Joe is the creator of the Ross hook, and has set new standards for low-risk trading with his concept of "The Law of Charts™." Joe was a private trader for most of his life. In the mid 80's he shift his focus and decided to share his knowledge. After his recovery, he founded Trading Educators in 1988 to teach aspiring traders how to make profits using his trading approach. He has written 12 major books on trading. All of them have become classics and have been translated into many different languages.

Joe holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration from the University of California at Los Angeles. He did his Masters work in Computer Sciences at the George Washington University extension in Norfolk, VA. Joe still tutors, teaches, writes, and trades regularly. Joe is still an active and integral part of Trading Educators.

Will I Get Rich Trading?...Probably Not

Don't throw that coffee cup at your screen, I'm only being honest. Do some people get rich trading?...Absolutely. The internet is filled with talented pitch men that can hype anything from watching the stars to the latest and greatest make you rich on auto-pilot software program for your trading signals. (but the stars thing does work great with my wife) Well, here today on the World Wide Web I am going to reveal the Holy Grail of trading. The surprise is it won't be found sold on the 'net in fact it is not a trading system at all. It is (drum roll please) being honest with yourself. My goodness, that's not very exciting after all the hype we've been fed by the guru's.

The truth is there are many trading systems that work, but there are precious few people can be honest enough with themselves to pick a system correctly. Most people that want to trade start off by looking for that system that will beat the market. Now I know that some systems out perform others and by all means you should seek the best one. Where many struggling traders miss the boat is they don't understand the best system is the one that matches your own personality. If one trader has good discipline he may not need a system that is very rigid. On other side of the discipline spectrum, a trader would need many rules to protect him. If either of these traders try to trade with other's system they would probably fail. When you try to trade a system that does not align with your need for discipline as an individual you are destined to fight the very system your trading. The holy grail that many seek is the ability to correctly identify their strengths and weaknesses. This sounds simple but you would be surprised at how many people will disregard certain weaknesses that they do not want to admit to anyone, even themselves. If more traders would first be brutally honest with themselves and then design a system tailored to their own attributes we would have many more Rich traders.

Will you get rich trading? If you have the honesty to choose the correct system, and the disciplineto follow that system it may be possible.

Don't throw that coffee cup at your screen, I'm only being honest. Do some people get rich trading?...Absolutely. The internet is filled with talented pitch men that can hype anything from watching the stars to the latest and greatest make you rich on auto-pilot software program for your trading signals. (but the stars thing does work great with my wife) Well, here today on the World Wide Web I am going to reveal the Holy Grail of trading. The surprise is it won't be found sold on the 'net in fact it is not a trading system at all. It is (drum roll please) being honest with yourself. My goodness, that's not very exciting after all the hype we've been fed by the guru's.

The truth is there are many trading systems that work, but there are precious few people can be honest enough with themselves to pick a system correctly. Most people that want to trade start off by looking for that system that will beat the market. Now I know that some systems out perform others and by all means you should seek the best one. Where many struggling traders miss the boat is they don't understand the best system is the one that matches your own personality. If one trader has good discipline he may not need a system that is very rigid. On other side of the discipline spectrum, a trader would need many rules to protect him. If either of these traders try to trade with other's system they would probably fail. When you try to trade a system that does not align with your need for discipline as an individual you are destined to fight the very system your trading. The holy grail that many seek is the ability to correctly identify their strengths and weaknesses. This sounds simple but you would be surprised at how many people will disregard certain weaknesses that they do not want to admit to anyone, even themselves. If more traders would first be brutally honest with themselves and then design a system tailored to their own attributes we would have many more Rich traders.

Will you get rich trading? If you have the honesty to choose the correct system, and the disciplineto follow that system it may be possible.

Day Trading: 7th June 2006

I'm liking it. Things are heading downward but we're not at the bottom of the trough yet. I think we'll be there at the end of today or tomorrow; I know by price, not time. I know what stocks I'm going to pick up then: my Limit Orders are in place.

Then I am hoping / think that things will pick up again - at least for a few days at some point. So with the buy low and sell higher strategy, I'll make some money. That's if it all goes my way.

Just look at Japan. At close, they were their lowest for 6 months. Is that a signal or what? Sometimes bad news is good news.

They stay day trading is exciting, but in my experience it is...well....quite boring: the winning way is to be patient, wait for the bargain, not let loose to emotion and consider not making money / taking a risk as an option. Sometimes you end up on top by not doing anything.

I'm liking it. Things are heading downward but we're not at the bottom of the trough yet. I think we'll be there at the end of today or tomorrow; I know by price, not time. I know what stocks I'm going to pick up then: my Limit Orders are in place.

Then I am hoping / think that things will pick up again - at least for a few days at some point. So with the buy low and sell higher strategy, I'll make some money. That's if it all goes my way.

Just look at Japan. At close, they were their lowest for 6 months. Is that a signal or what? Sometimes bad news is good news.

They stay day trading is exciting, but in my experience it is...well....quite boring: the winning way is to be patient, wait for the bargain, not let loose to emotion and consider not making money / taking a risk as an option. Sometimes you end up on top by not doing anything.

Friday, December 29, 2006

Will I Get Rich Trading?...Probably Not

Don't throw that coffee cup at your screen, I'm only being honest. Do some people get rich trading?...Absolutely. The internet is filled with talented pitch men that can hype anything from watching the stars to the latest and greatest make you rich on auto-pilot software program for your trading signals. (but the stars thing does work great with my wife) Well, here today on the World Wide Web I am going to reveal the Holy Grail of trading. The surprise is it won't be found sold on the 'net in fact it is not a trading system at all. It is (drum roll please) being honest with yourself. My goodness, that's not very exciting after all the hype we've been fed by the guru's.

The truth is there are many trading systems that work, but there are precious few people can be honest enough with themselves to pick a system correctly. Most people that want to trade start off by looking for that system that will beat the market. Now I know that some systems out perform others and by all means you should seek the best one. Where many struggling traders miss the boat is they don't understand the best system is the one that matches your own personality. If one trader has good discipline he may not need a system that is very rigid. On other side of the discipline spectrum, a trader would need many rules to protect him. If either of these traders try to trade with other's system they would probably fail. When you try to trade a system that does not align with your need for discipline as an individual you are destined to fight the very system your trading. The holy grail that many seek is the ability to correctly identify their strengths and weaknesses. This sounds simple but you would be surprised at how many people will disregard certain weaknesses that they do not want to admit to anyone, even themselves. If more traders would first be brutally honest with themselves and then design a system tailored to their own attributes we would have many more Rich traders.

Don't throw that coffee cup at your screen, I'm only being honest. Do some people get rich trading?...Absolutely. The internet is filled with talented pitch men that can hype anything from watching the stars to the latest and greatest make you rich on auto-pilot software program for your trading signals. (but the stars thing does work great with my wife) Well, here today on the World Wide Web I am going to reveal the Holy Grail of trading. The surprise is it won't be found sold on the 'net in fact it is not a trading system at all. It is (drum roll please) being honest with yourself. My goodness, that's not very exciting after all the hype we've been fed by the guru's.

The truth is there are many trading systems that work, but there are precious few people can be honest enough with themselves to pick a system correctly. Most people that want to trade start off by looking for that system that will beat the market. Now I know that some systems out perform others and by all means you should seek the best one. Where many struggling traders miss the boat is they don't understand the best system is the one that matches your own personality. If one trader has good discipline he may not need a system that is very rigid. On other side of the discipline spectrum, a trader would need many rules to protect him. If either of these traders try to trade with other's system they would probably fail. When you try to trade a system that does not align with your need for discipline as an individual you are destined to fight the very system your trading. The holy grail that many seek is the ability to correctly identify their strengths and weaknesses. This sounds simple but you would be surprised at how many people will disregard certain weaknesses that they do not want to admit to anyone, even themselves. If more traders would first be brutally honest with themselves and then design a system tailored to their own attributes we would have many more Rich traders.

Average Directional Index System

Directional system was developed by J. Wilder in the middle of 1970s as an addition to the system PARABOLIC SAR, and then it was advanced by a number of the analysts. ADX defines the tendency and shows, whether it moves quickly enough to follow it. ADX helps to take benefit, being still in the middle of important trends.

There are three lines in the indicator graph, a trend following line, a positive directional line (+DI) and a negative directional line (-DI). The Blue line tracks trends, the green line (+DI) is a signal to go long and the red line (-DI) is a signal line to go short. What we do is to wait for the blue line (trend line) to rise from below 20 to above 20. That means a trend is being developed.

Then we watch for other lines. When the green line (+DI) crosses above the red line (-DI), it is a signal to go long. And vise versa, when the red line (-DI) crosses above the green line (+DI), it is a signal to go short.

That’s it! So simple.

Recommended period would be ‘14’. This indicator is quite simple to use and quite profitable. But I recommend you not to use the indicator as signals to exit the market. Try to combine it with parabolic SAR and you’ll get great result on your trades.

Directional system was developed by J. Wilder in the middle of 1970s as an addition to the system PARABOLIC SAR, and then it was advanced by a number of the analysts. ADX defines the tendency and shows, whether it moves quickly enough to follow it. ADX helps to take benefit, being still in the middle of important trends.

There are three lines in the indicator graph, a trend following line, a positive directional line (+DI) and a negative directional line (-DI). The Blue line tracks trends, the green line (+DI) is a signal to go long and the red line (-DI) is a signal line to go short. What we do is to wait for the blue line (trend line) to rise from below 20 to above 20. That means a trend is being developed.

Then we watch for other lines. When the green line (+DI) crosses above the red line (-DI), it is a signal to go long. And vise versa, when the red line (-DI) crosses above the green line (+DI), it is a signal to go short.

That’s it! So simple.

Recommended period would be ‘14’. This indicator is quite simple to use and quite profitable. But I recommend you not to use the indicator as signals to exit the market. Try to combine it with parabolic SAR and you’ll get great result on your trades.

Moving Average (50)

Simple Moving Averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the technical analyst. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, something that is especially helpful in volatile markets.

Let’s discuss MA (50). ‘50’ means that the indicator uses 50 latest days to make its average. And I use 1H of time scale in implementing the indicator. The moving average represents the consensus of investor’s expectations over the indicated period of time. If the instrument price is above its moving average, it means that investor’s current expectations are higher than their average ones over the last 50 days, and that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the instrument. Conversely, if today’s price is below its moving average, it shows that current expectations are below the average ones over the last 50 days.

The classic interpretation of a moving average is to use it in observing changes in prices. Investors typically buy when the price of an instrument rises above its moving average and sell when it falls below its moving average. That’s it!

Click here to see an example of implementing MA(50) on chart.

But unfortunately all moving averages are lagging indicators and will always be "behind" the price.

But however, I use MA(50) to help me indicating long term bullish trend and bearish trend. But please be very careful when you see sideways market. Usually, using MA(50) to enter sideways market will potentially make your trades ended with loss. This is the weakness of using MA indicator.
Simple Moving Averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the technical analyst. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot trends, something that is especially helpful in volatile markets.

Let’s discuss MA (50). ‘50’ means that the indicator uses 50 latest days to make its average. And I use 1H of time scale in implementing the indicator. The moving average represents the consensus of investor’s expectations over the indicated period of time. If the instrument price is above its moving average, it means that investor’s current expectations are higher than their average ones over the last 50 days, and that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the instrument. Conversely, if today’s price is below its moving average, it shows that current expectations are below the average ones over the last 50 days.

The classic interpretation of a moving average is to use it in observing changes in prices. Investors typically buy when the price of an instrument rises above its moving average and sell when it falls below its moving average. That’s it!

Click here to see an example of implementing MA(50) on chart.

But unfortunately all moving averages are lagging indicators and will always be "behind" the price.

But however, I use MA(50) to help me indicating long term bullish trend and bearish trend. But please be very careful when you see sideways market. Usually, using MA(50) to enter sideways market will potentially make your trades ended with loss. This is the weakness of using MA indicator.

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Introduction to Forex

Do you ever feel like you know just enough about Forex to be dangerous? Let's see if we can fill in some of the gaps with the latest info from Forex experts.

The Foreign Exchange Market – better known as FOREX - is a world wide market for buying and selling currencies. The Foreign Exchange Market was established in 1971 with the abolishment of fixed currency exchanges. Businesses use the market to buy and sell products in other countries, but most of the activity on the FOREX is from currency traders who use it to generate profits from small movements in the market.

There was a time when forex trading was limited to banks and large financial institutions. The most important is trading in multiple currencies in multiple markets. Online trading has made the market fully transparent. The trading is instantaneous. This makes online trading both exciting and dangerous. The traders don’t have sufficient time to reflect. The best is through full-time educational programs that teach the working of forex markets. This involves working with a forex brokerage or with a forex trading firm.

The forex market is the largest market in the world where trade is conducted round the clock in real time. The entire trade is seamless, and works across time zones and across countries.

The most important forex markets are London, New York and Tokyo, and the most traded currencies are the US Dollar, European Euro, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and British Pound. These currencies are traded in pairs. A few traders rely on their instinct and experience while making these trades. The forex market is by far the world’s most volatile market. It is also the most unpredictable market where all trading happens in real time. Forex trading therefore becomes a major challenge for even the most experienced forex bankers and traders. Earlier, only large banks were allowed to trade in currencies. Today anyone can become a forex trader. There is someone or some organization always trading in foreign currency in some market or the other.

All these markets work seamlessly. There is no central location from where trading in currency is conducted. The volumes of currency that get traded during this period jumps; so does the number of trades.

Forex traders rely on several parameters to conduct their trade. The more successful or experienced traders follow their instincts based on years of experience of trading in the forex market. The traders who are not technology-savvy buy trading signals from online brokerages or forex research firms.
Do you ever feel like you know just enough about Forex to be dangerous? Let's see if we can fill in some of the gaps with the latest info from Forex experts.

The Foreign Exchange Market – better known as FOREX - is a world wide market for buying and selling currencies. The Foreign Exchange Market was established in 1971 with the abolishment of fixed currency exchanges. Businesses use the market to buy and sell products in other countries, but most of the activity on the FOREX is from currency traders who use it to generate profits from small movements in the market.

There was a time when forex trading was limited to banks and large financial institutions. The most important is trading in multiple currencies in multiple markets. Online trading has made the market fully transparent. The trading is instantaneous. This makes online trading both exciting and dangerous. The traders don’t have sufficient time to reflect. The best is through full-time educational programs that teach the working of forex markets. This involves working with a forex brokerage or with a forex trading firm.

The forex market is the largest market in the world where trade is conducted round the clock in real time. The entire trade is seamless, and works across time zones and across countries.

The most important forex markets are London, New York and Tokyo, and the most traded currencies are the US Dollar, European Euro, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and British Pound. These currencies are traded in pairs. A few traders rely on their instinct and experience while making these trades. The forex market is by far the world’s most volatile market. It is also the most unpredictable market where all trading happens in real time. Forex trading therefore becomes a major challenge for even the most experienced forex bankers and traders. Earlier, only large banks were allowed to trade in currencies. Today anyone can become a forex trader. There is someone or some organization always trading in foreign currency in some market or the other.

All these markets work seamlessly. There is no central location from where trading in currency is conducted. The volumes of currency that get traded during this period jumps; so does the number of trades.

Forex traders rely on several parameters to conduct their trade. The more successful or experienced traders follow their instincts based on years of experience of trading in the forex market. The traders who are not technology-savvy buy trading signals from online brokerages or forex research firms.

Trading In Black And White Forex Trading Newsletter – 6/6/06

In case you were wondering, though, we did not get into any trade. So, you didn’t miss any profits.

On another note, please keep an eye on your inbox today. We are going to be sending you all an invitation to join us for the “Trading In Black And White Forex Trading Contest”. This is a brand new contest, and if we may be so bold, a great opportunity for all of you to win some prizes. You’ll see on the webpage that we send you to that there is a reward for just signing up.

So, let’s move on to the trading part of the broadcast.

We had another test of the high 1.8800’s which failed. Not a huge surprise, considering the obvious bearish divergence between the MACD and the price on the Hourly chart.

Over the last few weeks, we have been trading at levels that are very difficult for us to read. The majority of the indicators that we favor have been worthless over this time.

We remain within these “difficult” levels today. So, we tread lightly with our trading as to avoid any major losses.

It is important to know when to put the fuel on the fire and when not to.

With all that being said, let’s move on to looking at tonight’s trading.

While in this “no-man’s” land we tend to favor one sided trading. This means that we do not look for both long and short trades. We look only for one or the other.

We have decided to look for a short trade, but this in no way means that there isn’t a good long trade to be had. This, again, shows why it is so important for you to learn and perfect YOUR OWN trading style.

Several of our traders believe that there are good support levels at 1.8650 and 1.8600. They have valid reasons to believe this, but they do not meet our standards of entering trades.

We, on the other hand are going to look towards the high 1.8700’s and low 1.8800’s for a chance to short Cable.

We know that this has not been one of our most informative newsletters, but we try to share with you our personal thoughts. And, tonight we have not been able to confidently decide anything.

These trading levels are confusing to us. In fact, some of the traders are looking forward to sleeping in tomorrow, since they won’t be making any trades tonight.

This just goes to show you that different trading styles exist, and many of them work. It’s just a matter of finding what makes the most sense to you.

That wraps up the newsletter for tonight. We are sure that you know that are much more information packed ones to come (just like the hundreds you have already received).

We find these support and resistance levels using a set of technical indicators and other variables that we have found to be most successful for us. We use several other indicators and a variety of technical analysis techniques to enter and exit all of our trades. Every trader will have a different combination of indicators that makes the most sense to them. Learn how to develop your own successful Forex Trading style with this Elite Forex Trading Course.

In case you were wondering, though, we did not get into any trade. So, you didn’t miss any profits.

On another note, please keep an eye on your inbox today. We are going to be sending you all an invitation to join us for the “Trading In Black And White Forex Trading Contest”. This is a brand new contest, and if we may be so bold, a great opportunity for all of you to win some prizes. You’ll see on the webpage that we send you to that there is a reward for just signing up.

So, let’s move on to the trading part of the broadcast.

We had another test of the high 1.8800’s which failed. Not a huge surprise, considering the obvious bearish divergence between the MACD and the price on the Hourly chart.

Over the last few weeks, we have been trading at levels that are very difficult for us to read. The majority of the indicators that we favor have been worthless over this time.

We remain within these “difficult” levels today. So, we tread lightly with our trading as to avoid any major losses.

It is important to know when to put the fuel on the fire and when not to.

With all that being said, let’s move on to looking at tonight’s trading.

While in this “no-man’s” land we tend to favor one sided trading. This means that we do not look for both long and short trades. We look only for one or the other.

We have decided to look for a short trade, but this in no way means that there isn’t a good long trade to be had. This, again, shows why it is so important for you to learn and perfect YOUR OWN trading style.

Several of our traders believe that there are good support levels at 1.8650 and 1.8600. They have valid reasons to believe this, but they do not meet our standards of entering trades.

We, on the other hand are going to look towards the high 1.8700’s and low 1.8800’s for a chance to short Cable.

We know that this has not been one of our most informative newsletters, but we try to share with you our personal thoughts. And, tonight we have not been able to confidently decide anything.

These trading levels are confusing to us. In fact, some of the traders are looking forward to sleeping in tomorrow, since they won’t be making any trades tonight.

This just goes to show you that different trading styles exist, and many of them work. It’s just a matter of finding what makes the most sense to you.

That wraps up the newsletter for tonight. We are sure that you know that are much more information packed ones to come (just like the hundreds you have already received).

We find these support and resistance levels using a set of technical indicators and other variables that we have found to be most successful for us. We use several other indicators and a variety of technical analysis techniques to enter and exit all of our trades. Every trader will have a different combination of indicators that makes the most sense to them. Learn how to develop your own successful Forex Trading style with this Elite Forex Trading Course.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Winning at Future Trading

A futures market is where commodities — to be delivered some time in the future are bought and sold. These include coffee, soybeans, silk, pork bellies, rubber, fur, grains, gold, eggs and government bonds.

The rationale behind this marketplace is to allow commodity producers to sell their produce in advance of delivering them. By doing this they are able to 'hedge' ie. ensure a minimum price which they will receive, and hence secure financing from their bank.

Future trading, also known as commodity trading, is based on the principle of supply and demand. When goods are in abundance prices fall, when goods are scarce prices rise. Future trading allows both buyers and sellers to take advantage of these variances.

A speculator risks capital for a spectacular gain - on the future price that commodities will fetch on the cash market. It doesn’t matter if the price moves up, or, down - as long as it moves. Prices vary due to both internal and external influences eg weather conditions, and political change, or unrest.

The participation of these speculators increases the likelihood that a sale can be made ie. that a current market price exists. It also places into the market an additional party willing to accept risk in return for an expected margin. Relatively risk-averse producers are complemented by specialists whose livelihood is made by managing risk.

With stock and share trading, traders only sell securities which they already possess - 'short-selling' is generally prohibited. In future trading there is no such limitation, and therefore speculators can enter the market as buyers or as sellers.

In addition to speculators, both the commodity's commercial producers and commercial consumers also participate. The principal economic purpose of the future market is for these commercial participants to eliminate their risk from changing prices.

To enable you to make informed decisions about commodity future trading and commodity future online trading you need to have a future trading system or future trading strategy in place. Experienced future traders tend to look at price activity on a chart rather than trying to interpret tables of numbers. In financial analysis, charts are imperative for quickly understanding the historical and recent price movements.

Speculating on the future is often more profitable than selling the actual commodity! However - beware - learning how to become a future day trader will mean studying the market on a day-to-day basis - so be patient - and remember Future Trading is described as profitable, risky and complex!

A futures market is where commodities — to be delivered some time in the future are bought and sold. These include coffee, soybeans, silk, pork bellies, rubber, fur, grains, gold, eggs and government bonds.

The rationale behind this marketplace is to allow commodity producers to sell their produce in advance of delivering them. By doing this they are able to 'hedge' ie. ensure a minimum price which they will receive, and hence secure financing from their bank.

Future trading, also known as commodity trading, is based on the principle of supply and demand. When goods are in abundance prices fall, when goods are scarce prices rise. Future trading allows both buyers and sellers to take advantage of these variances.

A speculator risks capital for a spectacular gain - on the future price that commodities will fetch on the cash market. It doesn’t matter if the price moves up, or, down - as long as it moves. Prices vary due to both internal and external influences eg weather conditions, and political change, or unrest.

The participation of these speculators increases the likelihood that a sale can be made ie. that a current market price exists. It also places into the market an additional party willing to accept risk in return for an expected margin. Relatively risk-averse producers are complemented by specialists whose livelihood is made by managing risk.

With stock and share trading, traders only sell securities which they already possess - 'short-selling' is generally prohibited. In future trading there is no such limitation, and therefore speculators can enter the market as buyers or as sellers.

In addition to speculators, both the commodity's commercial producers and commercial consumers also participate. The principal economic purpose of the future market is for these commercial participants to eliminate their risk from changing prices.

To enable you to make informed decisions about commodity future trading and commodity future online trading you need to have a future trading system or future trading strategy in place. Experienced future traders tend to look at price activity on a chart rather than trying to interpret tables of numbers. In financial analysis, charts are imperative for quickly understanding the historical and recent price movements.

Speculating on the future is often more profitable than selling the actual commodity! However - beware - learning how to become a future day trader will mean studying the market on a day-to-day basis - so be patient - and remember Future Trading is described as profitable, risky and complex!

How to Protect Yourself Against a Falling U.S. Dollar

If you use U.S. dollars in large quantities either as an American living in the U.S., or if you are a businessman that lives outside of the U.S but pays vendors in U.S. dollars, or if you are an American expat living overseas crying buckets everyday as the dollar buys less and less of the foreign currency of the country you are living in, then this article is for you.

Don’t be fooled by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s comments in mid-2006 which fueled fears about the Feds raising interest rates. Oh this will happen, and the dollar will temporarily strengthen, but after that, say sayonara to the dollar’s strength. If you aren’t familiar with the overhwelming arguments for the dollar continuing to weaken over the next year, then perform a Google search of my article entitled “The Biggest Threat to the Global Stock Markets that You Haven’t Heard About Yet” and read it carefully. But now on to the main point of this article – How to protect yourself against a falling U.S. dollar.

If you’re a business that pays vendors/suppliers in large quantities of U.S. dollars the best strategy to protect yourself against the weakening dollar is to buy forward spot contracts that lock in today’s exchange rates for future accounts payables. Any respectable international banking institution has an F/X (foreign exchange) desk that can handle this. If you’re an individual investor, then the simplest is just to buy foreign currency. Of course you could engage in the much more lucrative active trading of foreign currency, but in this case, I hope you have time to sit in front of your computer all day. So I’m just going to discuss the simpler case of buying foreign currency and the options you have.

If you buy foreign currency from the Foreign Exchange desks of large institutions like Citigroup, often you won’t start getting really good rates unless you purchase blocks of foreign currency worth U.S. $200-250,000 or more. So if you don’t have that much to hedge against a dollar that is most likely to weaken for the remainder of the year, what can you do if you would like to takeadvantage of the falling dollar?

Well if you contact institutions such as Citibank, they offer foreign currency “baskets” usually containing foreign currencies from four or five different countries. For example they offer an Asian foreign currency basket, but initial minimum positions are U.S. $50,000. This is option number one. And you can also buy Euros directly from them although you won't get the more competitive exchange rates at lower purchase amounts.

So what if you don’t want to hedge $50,000 of your current portfolio with foreign currency? Then you can use Everbank. Everbank offers CDs that in essence, or similar in structure to Citigroup’s foreign currency baskets. Actually many banks do, but I'm suggesting Everbank because of the several I scoured, Everbank allows you to buy in at much smaller positions. You can buy 3, 6, 9, or 12 month CDs denominated in a single foreign currency such as the Euro, the Canadian Dollar or the British Pound. Or you can purchase foreign currency “basket” CDs. For example, Everbank’s Asian Advantage CD consists of 40% of the New Zealand dollar, 20% of the Japanese Yen, 20% of the Thai Baht, and 20% of the Singapore Dollar. And you can buy these CDs at a lower minimum investment of only U.S. $20,000.

If you’re a maverick, Everbank even offers a "Bullish on the U.S. dollar" CD, but it's not at the top of my list right now.

Also know that most times I don’t bother mentioning the exact timing of when things should be done because I assume everybody has a competent advisor that advises them on the matters I speak of in my articles. So when considering buying foreign currency as a hedge, know that the Euro is at a year high against the U.S. dollar now, so that it might be wise to wait for a small bounce in the dollar against the Euro if you are planning on using the Euro in particular as a hedge in your portfolio. Long term for the rest of the year, I think that Citigroup’s Asian foreign currency basket, (or Everbank’s Asian Advantage CD)and the Euros are both good hedges against the weakening dollar, but consult your advisor for the proper time to enter these positions. The best bet is to buy a mix of Euros and Asian currency. Happy investing.

If you use U.S. dollars in large quantities either as an American living in the U.S., or if you are a businessman that lives outside of the U.S but pays vendors in U.S. dollars, or if you are an American expat living overseas crying buckets everyday as the dollar buys less and less of the foreign currency of the country you are living in, then this article is for you.

Don’t be fooled by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s comments in mid-2006 which fueled fears about the Feds raising interest rates. Oh this will happen, and the dollar will temporarily strengthen, but after that, say sayonara to the dollar’s strength. If you aren’t familiar with the overhwelming arguments for the dollar continuing to weaken over the next year, then perform a Google search of my article entitled “The Biggest Threat to the Global Stock Markets that You Haven’t Heard About Yet” and read it carefully. But now on to the main point of this article – How to protect yourself against a falling U.S. dollar.

If you’re a business that pays vendors/suppliers in large quantities of U.S. dollars the best strategy to protect yourself against the weakening dollar is to buy forward spot contracts that lock in today’s exchange rates for future accounts payables. Any respectable international banking institution has an F/X (foreign exchange) desk that can handle this. If you’re an individual investor, then the simplest is just to buy foreign currency. Of course you could engage in the much more lucrative active trading of foreign currency, but in this case, I hope you have time to sit in front of your computer all day. So I’m just going to discuss the simpler case of buying foreign currency and the options you have.

If you buy foreign currency from the Foreign Exchange desks of large institutions like Citigroup, often you won’t start getting really good rates unless you purchase blocks of foreign currency worth U.S. $200-250,000 or more. So if you don’t have that much to hedge against a dollar that is most likely to weaken for the remainder of the year, what can you do if you would like to takeadvantage of the falling dollar?

Well if you contact institutions such as Citibank, they offer foreign currency “baskets” usually containing foreign currencies from four or five different countries. For example they offer an Asian foreign currency basket, but initial minimum positions are U.S. $50,000. This is option number one. And you can also buy Euros directly from them although you won't get the more competitive exchange rates at lower purchase amounts.

So what if you don’t want to hedge $50,000 of your current portfolio with foreign currency? Then you can use Everbank. Everbank offers CDs that in essence, or similar in structure to Citigroup’s foreign currency baskets. Actually many banks do, but I'm suggesting Everbank because of the several I scoured, Everbank allows you to buy in at much smaller positions. You can buy 3, 6, 9, or 12 month CDs denominated in a single foreign currency such as the Euro, the Canadian Dollar or the British Pound. Or you can purchase foreign currency “basket” CDs. For example, Everbank’s Asian Advantage CD consists of 40% of the New Zealand dollar, 20% of the Japanese Yen, 20% of the Thai Baht, and 20% of the Singapore Dollar. And you can buy these CDs at a lower minimum investment of only U.S. $20,000.

If you’re a maverick, Everbank even offers a "Bullish on the U.S. dollar" CD, but it's not at the top of my list right now.

Also know that most times I don’t bother mentioning the exact timing of when things should be done because I assume everybody has a competent advisor that advises them on the matters I speak of in my articles. So when considering buying foreign currency as a hedge, know that the Euro is at a year high against the U.S. dollar now, so that it might be wise to wait for a small bounce in the dollar against the Euro if you are planning on using the Euro in particular as a hedge in your portfolio. Long term for the rest of the year, I think that Citigroup’s Asian foreign currency basket, (or Everbank’s Asian Advantage CD)and the Euros are both good hedges against the weakening dollar, but consult your advisor for the proper time to enter these positions. The best bet is to buy a mix of Euros and Asian currency. Happy investing.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Parabolic SAR

xBasically, parabolic SAR is used to indicate trend on a certain pair in forex trading. But I never use it for that purpose. Since this indicator is not that accurate in giving me buy or sell signals with great result. However, it is very useful to help us indicating when the right time to exit market is.

'SAR' stands for Stop and Reverse. The indicator was developed by Welles Wilder, creator of RSI and ADX. Parabolic SAR is more popular for setting exit targets than for establishing direction or trend. While others recommend to establish the trend first, and then trading with Parabolic SAR in the direction of the trend. If the trend is up, buy when the indicator moves below the price. If the trend is down, sell when the indicator moves above the price.

I used ADX to determine when is the right time to enter the market and Parabolic SAR to determine when is the right time to exit.

If you have sell position, when parabolic SAR indicator is below market price then it is the right time to exit from market. And vice versa, if you have buy position, when parabolic SAR indicator is above market price then it is the right time to exit market.

Click here to read more about this indicator and read other related topics

Richie is a forex trader and forex technical analyst.
xBasically, parabolic SAR is used to indicate trend on a certain pair in forex trading. But I never use it for that purpose. Since this indicator is not that accurate in giving me buy or sell signals with great result. However, it is very useful to help us indicating when the right time to exit market is.

'SAR' stands for Stop and Reverse. The indicator was developed by Welles Wilder, creator of RSI and ADX. Parabolic SAR is more popular for setting exit targets than for establishing direction or trend. While others recommend to establish the trend first, and then trading with Parabolic SAR in the direction of the trend. If the trend is up, buy when the indicator moves below the price. If the trend is down, sell when the indicator moves above the price.

I used ADX to determine when is the right time to enter the market and Parabolic SAR to determine when is the right time to exit.

If you have sell position, when parabolic SAR indicator is below market price then it is the right time to exit from market. And vice versa, if you have buy position, when parabolic SAR indicator is above market price then it is the right time to exit market.

Click here to read more about this indicator and read other related topics

Richie is a forex trader and forex technical analyst.

A Guide to Forex Trading

Market knowledge and ability to understand analysis will only get you so far in Forex trading, but without the nerve to actively compete risking your own money in the process you can never become a successful trader.

Wagering huge volumes of money in a market as susceptible to change is liable to cause a whole range of opposing emotions; fear, excitement and anxiety just to name a few. Battling against your emotions in order to complete a successful deal is one of the major hurdles, which must be overcome if you are to become a trader able to close huge deals and earn vast sums of money. If you can overcome or even use these emotions to make trades on the Forex then a successful career may be beckoning, but failure to do so will almost certainly cost you a substantial amount of money and end any lingering desires to progress in the busy world of exchange rate trading.

Initiating and closing a trade at the right times are the backbone of becoming a successful Forex trader. If a person cannot execute these deals at the right times, the psychological and financial damage can be crippling. Missing a huge trend or sitting too long on a good price, can be a demoralising experience, but one that many will encounter during a career in Forex trading.

Entering at the right time is just one thing that must be done correctly, but if you are unable to leave at the right time or hold your nerve during the course of the trade, the implications are potentially severe. For example accepting a small loss just before the market rises can lead to a horrendous huge profit/loss ratio margin. Similarly sitting on a currency price that is plummeting for too long could be financially crippling. Understanding the Forex market and having faith in your ability to judge a trend will pay dividends if you hold your nerve, backing out at the wrong time can prove to be a catastrophic misnomer.

The fear generated by investing your own personal money is the main thing that must be overcome. It is the culprit in so many failure stories, people who just couldn't overcome their anxiety investing unwisely, pulling out at the wrong time, missing a rise completely, all result in failure and are caused by fear. Accepting this fear, and using it to your potential will make you a stronger trader, able to trade freely and enjoy the thrill of the exchange. Fighting it will get you nowhere, understanding and overcoming it are the best remedies to this baseless emotion.

Trading strategies will help you ride out the rough times and capitalize on the good ones. Sometimes just taking a step back and accepting a few losses will give you the energy and the knowledge to attack the Forex with renewed vigour, and make some serious profits. Accepting that sometimes you will lose out, you need to be able to take the hits and roll with a punch, there are no guarantees in the trading market, so being able to move on and start again is a skill that is paramount to generating success.

Market knowledge and ability to understand analysis will only get you so far in Forex trading, but without the nerve to actively compete risking your own money in the process you can never become a successful trader.

Wagering huge volumes of money in a market as susceptible to change is liable to cause a whole range of opposing emotions; fear, excitement and anxiety just to name a few. Battling against your emotions in order to complete a successful deal is one of the major hurdles, which must be overcome if you are to become a trader able to close huge deals and earn vast sums of money. If you can overcome or even use these emotions to make trades on the Forex then a successful career may be beckoning, but failure to do so will almost certainly cost you a substantial amount of money and end any lingering desires to progress in the busy world of exchange rate trading.

Initiating and closing a trade at the right times are the backbone of becoming a successful Forex trader. If a person cannot execute these deals at the right times, the psychological and financial damage can be crippling. Missing a huge trend or sitting too long on a good price, can be a demoralising experience, but one that many will encounter during a career in Forex trading.

Entering at the right time is just one thing that must be done correctly, but if you are unable to leave at the right time or hold your nerve during the course of the trade, the implications are potentially severe. For example accepting a small loss just before the market rises can lead to a horrendous huge profit/loss ratio margin. Similarly sitting on a currency price that is plummeting for too long could be financially crippling. Understanding the Forex market and having faith in your ability to judge a trend will pay dividends if you hold your nerve, backing out at the wrong time can prove to be a catastrophic misnomer.

The fear generated by investing your own personal money is the main thing that must be overcome. It is the culprit in so many failure stories, people who just couldn't overcome their anxiety investing unwisely, pulling out at the wrong time, missing a rise completely, all result in failure and are caused by fear. Accepting this fear, and using it to your potential will make you a stronger trader, able to trade freely and enjoy the thrill of the exchange. Fighting it will get you nowhere, understanding and overcoming it are the best remedies to this baseless emotion.

Trading strategies will help you ride out the rough times and capitalize on the good ones. Sometimes just taking a step back and accepting a few losses will give you the energy and the knowledge to attack the Forex with renewed vigour, and make some serious profits. Accepting that sometimes you will lose out, you need to be able to take the hits and roll with a punch, there are no guarantees in the trading market, so being able to move on and start again is a skill that is paramount to generating success.

Monday, December 25, 2006

Forex Tricks: Victoria Secret

Victoria secret is a trick to make profit from bullish market which is nearly close to top levels (saturated levels) in Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd pairs. I developed the trick at 2005. Some were fails, but most of them are ended with great profit.

I booked profit of 200 pips in Eur/Usd at the last week of January 2006 with using only 1 order and 1 overnight. But unfortunately, I was loss for -35 pips at the first week of January 2006 in Eur/Usd. And I was succeed to take profit of 300 pips in Gbp/Usd in December 2005. Therefore, I strongly recommend you to use stop loss in implementing this trick. I use 35 pips gap from open position for Eur/Usd and 50 pips gap from open position for Gbp/Usd.

When the Dollar is weakening against the Euro and Pounds and enters its saturated levels, then it’s time for us to wait for its correction. Will correction occur (due to economic data impacts or just for technical rebound), usually it will make significant movement. And this is a good opportunity to enter market.

The easiest way to predict saturated levels and find Victoria Secret opportunity is by looking at RSI (14) indicator at time frame of 1D. When bullish market is reaching 65 level (crossing above 65), then it’s time for us to look forward to waiting for Victoria Secret opportunity.

Use candlestick mode on your chart. When RSI (14) at time frame of 1D crosses above 65, take a good look at market price. If market price forms ‘empty candlestick’ (closing price above opening price), then we’ll wait for ‘shaded candlestick’ (closing price below opening price) on the next days.

When you got the ‘shaded candlestick’, then the day after that would be our Victoria Secret day.

So the pattern would be: Empty candlestick-shaded candlestick-victoria secret candlestick

Yup, I know… you might need to be patience to make profit from this trick. But considering its reward, it is worth to wait for the opportunity.

When market price at Victoria Secret candlestick is equal to high level at shaded candlestick, then it’s time to sell. And do not forget to use stop loss.

When market price moves nearly our stop loss, then we’re not going to do anything. If our stop loss is hit, then let it go. It means that this is not our lucky day. But if market price moves downward then we’re so close to big victory.

Its main purpose is to earn big victory and usually the opportunity occurs in low volatile market. Therefore, I named it Victoria Secret trick.

One trick that will make you feels comfortable with your profit and makes you please to ‘see’ it. Just like ‘the other’ Victoria Secret. You know what I mean.
Victoria secret is a trick to make profit from bullish market which is nearly close to top levels (saturated levels) in Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd pairs. I developed the trick at 2005. Some were fails, but most of them are ended with great profit.

I booked profit of 200 pips in Eur/Usd at the last week of January 2006 with using only 1 order and 1 overnight. But unfortunately, I was loss for -35 pips at the first week of January 2006 in Eur/Usd. And I was succeed to take profit of 300 pips in Gbp/Usd in December 2005. Therefore, I strongly recommend you to use stop loss in implementing this trick. I use 35 pips gap from open position for Eur/Usd and 50 pips gap from open position for Gbp/Usd.

When the Dollar is weakening against the Euro and Pounds and enters its saturated levels, then it’s time for us to wait for its correction. Will correction occur (due to economic data impacts or just for technical rebound), usually it will make significant movement. And this is a good opportunity to enter market.

The easiest way to predict saturated levels and find Victoria Secret opportunity is by looking at RSI (14) indicator at time frame of 1D. When bullish market is reaching 65 level (crossing above 65), then it’s time for us to look forward to waiting for Victoria Secret opportunity.

Use candlestick mode on your chart. When RSI (14) at time frame of 1D crosses above 65, take a good look at market price. If market price forms ‘empty candlestick’ (closing price above opening price), then we’ll wait for ‘shaded candlestick’ (closing price below opening price) on the next days.

When you got the ‘shaded candlestick’, then the day after that would be our Victoria Secret day.

So the pattern would be: Empty candlestick-shaded candlestick-victoria secret candlestick

Yup, I know… you might need to be patience to make profit from this trick. But considering its reward, it is worth to wait for the opportunity.

When market price at Victoria Secret candlestick is equal to high level at shaded candlestick, then it’s time to sell. And do not forget to use stop loss.

When market price moves nearly our stop loss, then we’re not going to do anything. If our stop loss is hit, then let it go. It means that this is not our lucky day. But if market price moves downward then we’re so close to big victory.

Its main purpose is to earn big victory and usually the opportunity occurs in low volatile market. Therefore, I named it Victoria Secret trick.

One trick that will make you feels comfortable with your profit and makes you please to ‘see’ it. Just like ‘the other’ Victoria Secret. You know what I mean.

How to Place Stop Loss

Using Stop Loss in anytime we enter the market is one way to manage our risk in trading. While some other traders might consider it as the sissy way, I don’t….. I like to trade using Stop Loss. And it brings me to good results in the end of the day. Keeps me stick with well-controlled trading system.

When we decide to use stop loss, then we must be discipline in implementing it. If market price is heading so close to our stop loss, then we must not do anything. Do not ever try to replace your stop loss at further level from your open position level.

Replace your stop loss only for one reason: For Trailing Stop Strategy (although I hardly ever use trailing stop strategy).

Now the problem is… where should we put our stop loss in each trading? Here are some tips I could give you:

1. Measure the gap between your stop loss and your open position level. Usually I use these rules:
Eur/Usd: gap between stop loss and open position = 35 pips
Gbp/Usd: gap between stop loss and open position = 50 pips

These are representing maximum losses that you could handle in each trade. Keep that always in mind. We’re not going to enter the market without this gap rule.

2. Entry strategy Then you could predict your best entry level using your trading system. And when you decide to enter the market at certain level (using your trading strategy), do not forget to pay attention to your stop loss. Where will your stop loss be placed using the gap rule on tips #1.

Try to put your stop loss below Support Level (for Long position) or above Resistance Level (for short position).

For example:
We had Eur/Usd support and resistance levels are at:
R3 1.3052
R2 1.2962
R1 1.2906
Pivot 1.2816
S1 1.2760
S2 1.2670
S3 1.2614

Then after measuring the trend, you noticed that 1.2870 is the best place to short on eur/usd. That means, by using 35 gaps rule (see point#1), your Stop Loss would be at 1.2905.

Unfortunately, 1.2905 is not a good level to place your Stop Loss. Why? It is not protected by resistance level. When market moves upward, your Stop Loss is not well protected by its technical factor. So it would be quite easy for the market to hit your Stop Loss. Nearest resistance is 1.2906, above 1.2905. So what do we do here is to move our Stop Loss a little above 1.2905. Let’s say we move it to 1.2910. Now technically, you have a well protected stop loss.

When you move Stop Loss, do not forget about the gap rule (as said in point#1). So we have to move also our open position plan.

And now, your plan becomes Short at 1.2875 (5 pips above 1.2870) and Stop Loss at 1.2910 (5 pips above 1.2905).

3. Keep calm when market heading so close to your stop loss. Anything could happen in Forex in very short time. No one can control people madness when they enter the market. But the most important thing in dealing with this mad world is ‘risk management’. Successful traders realize that sometimes they had to deal with fail trades.

So if your stop loss is hit, let it go. That’s just the way it is.
Using Stop Loss in anytime we enter the market is one way to manage our risk in trading. While some other traders might consider it as the sissy way, I don’t….. I like to trade using Stop Loss. And it brings me to good results in the end of the day. Keeps me stick with well-controlled trading system.

When we decide to use stop loss, then we must be discipline in implementing it. If market price is heading so close to our stop loss, then we must not do anything. Do not ever try to replace your stop loss at further level from your open position level.

Replace your stop loss only for one reason: For Trailing Stop Strategy (although I hardly ever use trailing stop strategy).

Now the problem is… where should we put our stop loss in each trading? Here are some tips I could give you:

1. Measure the gap between your stop loss and your open position level. Usually I use these rules:
Eur/Usd: gap between stop loss and open position = 35 pips
Gbp/Usd: gap between stop loss and open position = 50 pips

These are representing maximum losses that you could handle in each trade. Keep that always in mind. We’re not going to enter the market without this gap rule.

2. Entry strategy Then you could predict your best entry level using your trading system. And when you decide to enter the market at certain level (using your trading strategy), do not forget to pay attention to your stop loss. Where will your stop loss be placed using the gap rule on tips #1.

Try to put your stop loss below Support Level (for Long position) or above Resistance Level (for short position).

For example:
We had Eur/Usd support and resistance levels are at:
R3 1.3052
R2 1.2962
R1 1.2906
Pivot 1.2816
S1 1.2760
S2 1.2670
S3 1.2614

Then after measuring the trend, you noticed that 1.2870 is the best place to short on eur/usd. That means, by using 35 gaps rule (see point#1), your Stop Loss would be at 1.2905.

Unfortunately, 1.2905 is not a good level to place your Stop Loss. Why? It is not protected by resistance level. When market moves upward, your Stop Loss is not well protected by its technical factor. So it would be quite easy for the market to hit your Stop Loss. Nearest resistance is 1.2906, above 1.2905. So what do we do here is to move our Stop Loss a little above 1.2905. Let’s say we move it to 1.2910. Now technically, you have a well protected stop loss.

When you move Stop Loss, do not forget about the gap rule (as said in point#1). So we have to move also our open position plan.

And now, your plan becomes Short at 1.2875 (5 pips above 1.2870) and Stop Loss at 1.2910 (5 pips above 1.2905).

3. Keep calm when market heading so close to your stop loss. Anything could happen in Forex in very short time. No one can control people madness when they enter the market. But the most important thing in dealing with this mad world is ‘risk management’. Successful traders realize that sometimes they had to deal with fail trades.

So if your stop loss is hit, let it go. That’s just the way it is.

Sunday, December 24, 2006

Relative Strength Index

This is one of my favorites. I use this indicator at time scale of 5M, 1H, and 1D. So simple to be used and has helped me to have great result in my trades. You don't even need to be an expert to use this indicator.

This technical indicator was developed by Welles Wilder to help investors gauge the current strength of a stock's price relative to its past performance. The usefulness of this indicator is based on the premise that the RSI will usually top out or bottom out before the actual market top or bottom, giving a signal that a reversal or at least a significant reaction in stock price is imminent.

The main purpose of the RSI is to measure the market’s strength and weakness. A high RSI, above 70, suggests an overbought or weakening bull market. Conversely, a low RSI, below 30, implies an oversold market or dying bear market.

But RSI does not indicate a top or a bottom. Sometimes overbought market will be followed by little downward correction in order to gather momentum so it could go up much further. And sometimes oversold market will be followed by little upward correction in order to gather momentum so it could go down much further.
This is one of my favorites. I use this indicator at time scale of 5M, 1H, and 1D. So simple to be used and has helped me to have great result in my trades. You don't even need to be an expert to use this indicator.

This technical indicator was developed by Welles Wilder to help investors gauge the current strength of a stock's price relative to its past performance. The usefulness of this indicator is based on the premise that the RSI will usually top out or bottom out before the actual market top or bottom, giving a signal that a reversal or at least a significant reaction in stock price is imminent.

The main purpose of the RSI is to measure the market’s strength and weakness. A high RSI, above 70, suggests an overbought or weakening bull market. Conversely, a low RSI, below 30, implies an oversold market or dying bear market.

But RSI does not indicate a top or a bottom. Sometimes overbought market will be followed by little downward correction in order to gather momentum so it could go up much further. And sometimes oversold market will be followed by little upward correction in order to gather momentum so it could go down much further.

Trading In Black And White Forex Trading Newsletter – 6/8/06

It seems, still, as if many of you are not getting all of our newsletters. This, of course, is a problem. We have been in contact with our list management company, and they say that the worst of it should be over.

However, if you do not receive a newsletter for a night or two, please let us know so that we can get you up to date.

We try our best to make these newsletters independent of each other, so that if you miss one night, it will not set back your trading any.

Also, since trading is a VERY repetitive, and simple skill. We tend to discuss the same basic problems in many different newsletters.

We make every effort to not reference older newsletters just in case you no longer have them. We feel that in order for you to truly learn, you must be exposed to what we are trying to share with you over and over.

That being said, we have seen some great response to the “Trading In Black And White Forex Trading Contest”. Many of you have already registered, but there are still a few of you haven’t.

Don’t make me come over there…ha ha. We know that some of you never received the information due to our list problems. So, we are going to resend the info again, in the next few days.

For those of you who have received it already, please forgive us for the extra email. For those of you who haven’t, it’s time to get excited. The entry prizes are great, as well as the winning prizes.

Alright, so let’s get on to tonight’s trading.

Last night set up for some good trading, although, I admit, I missed my entry by less than 10 pips. For those of you who were nice enough to let me know about you GREAT trades last night, thank you. This further proves what we are trying to say to you.

You can out perform us on any given night, week, month, or year once you have developed your own trading style.

We love the “testimonial” style email from you all. Letting us know how great you are doing since reading our newsletter.

So, tonight, there are several support and resistant levels that stand out.

From the support side – 1.8520, 1.8440 (Notice the big gap between levels)

On the resistance side – 1.8600, 1.8640, 1.8680

Remember to watch the price action at these different levels for a good entry point.

Just to point out an interesting opportunity…look at the large gap (80 pips) between the support levels we’ve mentioned. This gap may lead to a good trading opportunity.

Many of our traders are looking to go short at the breakout below 1.8529 and ride that wave down to mid 1.8400’s.

A night like tonight is a great example of how many different ways there are to find good trading opportunities. Some of our traders are waiting for an upwards bounce in order to get short at what they deem to be a “safe” level.

While others are already long from 1.8550 and are looking for a bounce up to close out their trades. Some will also be going short when the close their trades, while others won’t.

Even still, some of them are looking to go short the breakout of 1.8529.

All of these strategies are valid, and potentially profitable. It’s simply a matter of your level of comfort, aggressiveness, discipline, and trading styles that will determine which trade or trades make the most sense to you.

It seems, still, as if many of you are not getting all of our newsletters. This, of course, is a problem. We have been in contact with our list management company, and they say that the worst of it should be over.

However, if you do not receive a newsletter for a night or two, please let us know so that we can get you up to date.

We try our best to make these newsletters independent of each other, so that if you miss one night, it will not set back your trading any.

Also, since trading is a VERY repetitive, and simple skill. We tend to discuss the same basic problems in many different newsletters.

We make every effort to not reference older newsletters just in case you no longer have them. We feel that in order for you to truly learn, you must be exposed to what we are trying to share with you over and over.

That being said, we have seen some great response to the “Trading In Black And White Forex Trading Contest”. Many of you have already registered, but there are still a few of you haven’t.

Don’t make me come over there…ha ha. We know that some of you never received the information due to our list problems. So, we are going to resend the info again, in the next few days.

For those of you who have received it already, please forgive us for the extra email. For those of you who haven’t, it’s time to get excited. The entry prizes are great, as well as the winning prizes.

Alright, so let’s get on to tonight’s trading.

Last night set up for some good trading, although, I admit, I missed my entry by less than 10 pips. For those of you who were nice enough to let me know about you GREAT trades last night, thank you. This further proves what we are trying to say to you.

You can out perform us on any given night, week, month, or year once you have developed your own trading style.

We love the “testimonial” style email from you all. Letting us know how great you are doing since reading our newsletter.

So, tonight, there are several support and resistant levels that stand out.

From the support side – 1.8520, 1.8440 (Notice the big gap between levels)

On the resistance side – 1.8600, 1.8640, 1.8680

Remember to watch the price action at these different levels for a good entry point.

Just to point out an interesting opportunity…look at the large gap (80 pips) between the support levels we’ve mentioned. This gap may lead to a good trading opportunity.

Many of our traders are looking to go short at the breakout below 1.8529 and ride that wave down to mid 1.8400’s.

A night like tonight is a great example of how many different ways there are to find good trading opportunities. Some of our traders are waiting for an upwards bounce in order to get short at what they deem to be a “safe” level.

While others are already long from 1.8550 and are looking for a bounce up to close out their trades. Some will also be going short when the close their trades, while others won’t.

Even still, some of them are looking to go short the breakout of 1.8529.

All of these strategies are valid, and potentially profitable. It’s simply a matter of your level of comfort, aggressiveness, discipline, and trading styles that will determine which trade or trades make the most sense to you.